Happy to announce the acceptance and publication of my research paper entitled “Testing for Linear and Non-linear Causality in Spot and Future Prices of National Multi-Commodity Indices”. The said research paper has concentrated on Metal Products, Agricultural products and Energy products. From the above research study, and statistical calculation, it is quite proved that, a direct and positive relationship has been seen between spot price and future price of commodity under study in MCX.
The group of commodities, i.e., Metal and Energy has been depending on each other to the extent of 90 % or more than that. In case of Agricultural commodities the relationship is seen only to the extent of 50%. The other variables like speculation, arbitrage opportunities, transaction costs, government policies, etc. affecting the future prices based on spot price, and spot price based on future prices, to the extent of maximum 10% and 50% in case of metal and energy; and agricultural commodities respectively. It is also being concluded that inflation is accounted nearly by 90% in case of metal and energy products by future market; while for agricultural product it is nearly by 50%.
The suggestions are narrated in the said paper, so that government authorities can thought for during formation of policies.